How to play the game in the metacassin that affects retail, consumption and services

Proponents claim it is part of the experience economy powered by digital and now also by Artificial Intelligence.

Critics highlight the impacts on the economy, society and even mental health.And even Lula spoke out, pointing out that the problem of record indebtedness of 82 million Brazilians has cause in bets on bets.

The undeniable thing is that income and financial resources are migrating from retail, consumption and services, the largest private generators of employment in Brazil, to betting anyway.

It is not a phenomenon restricted to Brazil. It affects more directly the Western economy, especially Europe and the United States ¡ ̄ with Brazil in the spotlight.

To the point that, here, the National Monetary Council (CMN) has just banned predictive betting for everything beyond what is not restricted to the financial market, since this model had been taking advantage of loopholes in legislation to act illegally in the market“protected” das bets.

The issue involving these practices has created problems in several countries.In the United States, there is already talk of an out-of-control epidemic bringing together bets, sports betting and predictive.

In Brazil, bets on bets reach close to R$ 300 billion per year considering the legal ones and those that are not controlled or authorized & that would already account for close to 50% of the total.

For reference and comparison purposes, this value is equivalent to the total revenue of the foodservice sector, which includes bars, restaurants, bakeries, delivery and fast food in the country. Or close to all the revenue of the telecommunications sector, involving companies such as Vivo, Claro, Tim and others. Or about 50% of the supermarket, hypermarket and wholesale sector in the country.

It is a resource diverted from the consumption of goods and services to the “entertainment” market and that attracts more and more companies and promotional stimuli to the metacassino that has been created and that grows by the increase of companies and businesses involved, including traditional communication vehicles, attracted by the explosive expansion.

Everything seems to conspire for an alienating and addictive process of digital entertainment that takes the focus off of the increasingly complex real problems in the political, economic and social fields.

Recent and overwhelming progress

It is worth remembering that this betting movement began here in 2018 with the legalization of sports betting, exploded in the period from 2019 to 2022 and was regulated definitively in 2024.

The legalized and authorized company pays R$ 30 million for the license grant and 12% on the gross revenue of the bets, which generates an estimated total revenue potential between R$ 6 and R$ 12 billion per year. And all revenue is important to balance the increase in public spending exponented by the electoral period.

These figures disregard everything that informal companies capture on the fringes of legality, which makes it difficult to generate estimates.

A relevant part of this resource migrates to the foreign market, to the controllers or operators of companies in Brazil.

Predictive betting, the latest business in this ecosystem of activities, has the simplicity and breadth of alternatives in its favor, increasing the potential for mass access, as bettors can buy event probabilities involving elections, inflation, weather, prices, consumption behavior or product launch, in a multitude of opportunities.

The fundamental reason for the interference of the CMN prohibiting predictive betting was the reduction of the potential of collection by the identified gap of being part of the financial market and, therefore, not having to pay for the grant and the taxes involved.

An additional issue is the use of AI also as a bettor, playing a much more complex game that in the end has the fundamental objective of involving, entertaining, increasing the volume of bets and the gains of the companies involved in the metacassin and the government with the collection of taxes.

And diverting resources, income and employment from the consumption of products, services and brands in retail and in the market.

To integrate consumption, retail and entertainment

Many promotional mechanisms adopted by retail and brands somehow represent performance in this universe of betting, still shy.

Sweepstakes, contests, offers, dynamic promotions and other mechanisms used by retail represent, in a way, a “gaming of consumption, which seems to have increasing appeal in the consumer experience.

There are different models and alternatives, involving probabilistic cashback, progressive coupons, gamified loyalty programs, limited offers or even consumer engagement as sales promoters, which can be considered alternatives for greater involvement in this seemingly non-passing fever of entertainment, betting and experience.

Examples from China, Europe and the United States signal opportunities that, if the problem cannot be eliminated, at least indicate ways to learn to play with it.

To close

The collection of taxes with retail and formal consumption, combined with the generation of employment and income, has a much more relevant and important social and economic impact than that generated by the taxes of formal bets.

This is without forgetting the expansion of social and mental health risk associated with addiction and indebtedness.

The bet and its variants created one of the largest pressure groups in Congress, gathering and complementing the “4 Bs” decisions: the benches linked to the Bible, Bala, Boi & Bets.

But on the other hand, it is important to consider that there is a clear message: the appeal of entertainment is increasingly associated with the habits of omniconsumers, and it is up to retail, consumption, brands and services to seek alternatives to play this game in a creative, innovative and engaging way to maintain or expand their business.

That's how it is.

Marcos Gouvea de Souza is the founder and general director of Gouvea Ecosystem